2020 fishmeal and oil production predictionIFFO estimates a global production of close to 5 million tonnes of fishmeal this year

IFFO’s market research director Enrico Bachis predicts that global marine ingredients supply should be just short of 5 million tonnes of fishmeal and around 1 million tonnes of fish oil.

With the assumption of a fish oil yield of 3.5% of the anchovy catches in Peru, the overall supply of fish oil this year could at best match that of 2019, although a small decrease is more likely given the poor results in Europe, he stated during a meeting held by the Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO) to engage members virtually during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The background is that in 2019 both fishmeal and oil output experienced a decrease with respect to 2018, on the back of poorer catches especially in Peru, Iceland and Denmark. As usual, landings in Peru will play a major role in determining the global trend, and for this year the expectation is of something slightly above the 2019 output.

Presenting the latest market and regulatory insights from China, IFFO China director Maggie Xu noted that both the fishmeal and fish oil markets have been negatively affected by restrictions due to Covid-19 and unpredictable weather conditions.

She pointed out that overall aquafeed output in China is expected to remain steady or slightly muted due to these conditions. Increased consumption of marine ingredients should come from the pig sector, which continues to recover after the African Swine Fever outbreaks decimated the Chinese hog stock in 2019. In terms of domestic supply of marine ingredients, China’s output from whole fish has decreased in recent years whereas supply from by-products has remained stable.

“Communication throughout the value chain is key and as an industry, we must ensure that during this challenging period we share solutions in order to maintain resilient supply chains, and keep championing best practices in terms of sustainability,” commented IFFO’s Director General, Petter Johannessen.

“With IFFO members representing more than 55% of the total world production and between 75% and 80% of the total annual trade worldwide, IFFO is the only organisation of the fishing sector invited to the OECD-FAO working group on agri-commodities.”

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